Kenyan Drake Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Kenyan Drake's 8.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 13.7.