Kenyan Drake Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to earn 15.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (44.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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