Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Kenny Pickett is predicted by the model to have the 9th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.4.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the league (43.7 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Kenny Pickett's 60.1% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteworthy regression in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.9% rate.
Kenny Pickett has been among the weakest TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a paltry 0.83 per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of CBs has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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