Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+196/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (63.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
In this contest, Kenny Pickett is predicted by the predictive model to have the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.7.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Kenny Pickett's 58.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a a remarkable diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.9% mark.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered a puny 61.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
This year, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a measly 0.67 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the best rate in the league.

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