Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +195 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.7% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The projections expect Kenny Pickett to throw 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Kenny Pickett's throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 64.9% to 58.8%.
This year, the strong Ravens defense has given up a measly 0.75 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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