Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Kenny Pickett to attempt 37.2 passes this week, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Kenny Pickett's passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 64.9% to 57.6%.
Kenny Pickett has been among the weakest touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.69 per game while grading out in the 13th percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.

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