Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Kenny Pickett has been among the worst touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrible 0.54 per game while checking in at the 6th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-least TDs through the air in the league: 1.18 per game since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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