Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+221/-289).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (61.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.