Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 54.5% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.