Kenny Pickett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (72.4%).
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a lowly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.