Kenny Pickett Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kenny Pickett

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
While Kenny Pickett has garnered 6.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Pittsburgh's run game in this week's contest at 12.5%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Kenny Pickett has averaged a measly 1.5 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the NFL among QBs (23rd percentile).
Kenny Pickett's 4.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents a a significant decline in his running proficiency over last year's 17.0 figure.

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