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Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints

Kenny Pickett Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-937).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -747 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -937.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 39.0% red zone run rate.

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on a mere 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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