Kenny Pickett Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 222.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.26 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.