Kenny Pickett Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Completions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Kenny Pickett Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (64.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.