Kenneth Gainwell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kenneth Gainwell

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.63 seconds per play.
After taking on 10.7% of his team's carries last season, Kenneth Gainwell has played a bigger part in the running game this season, now sitting at 38.2%.

Favors Under

Kenneth Gainwell's rushing effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 3.66 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.91 mark last season.
Kenneth Gainwell has been among the weakest RBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.18 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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