Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Kenneth Gainwell

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
As it relates to air yards, Kenneth Gainwell ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a massive 6.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Kenneth Gainwell has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, playing on 41.1% of snaps vs just 28.2% last season.
Kenneth Gainwell's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 4.13 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 5.75 mark last season.

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