Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
When it comes to air yards, Kenneth Gainwell grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a monstrous 9.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Dolphins defense has allowed the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a monstrous 6.75 yards.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
Kenneth Gainwell has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 44.8% of snaps compared to just 28.2% last year.
Kenneth Gainwell's 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a a significant decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 82.1% mark.