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Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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To the extent of a defense's impact on pace, at 27.47 seconds per play, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.In regards to air yards, Kenneth Gainwell grades out in the towering 97th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a monstrous 5.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Eagles ranks as the best in the NFL this year.This year, the feeble Giants pass defense has conceded a massive 88.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the worst rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 14-point advantage, the Eagles are overwhelmingly favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Kenneth Gainwell has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 41.1% of snaps vs just 28.2% last year.Kenneth Gainwell's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 4.73 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.75 mark last year.This year, the strong New York Giants defense has surrendered a feeble 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 5th-fewest in the league.
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