Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).
When talking about air yards, Kenneth Gainwell grades out in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a staggering 5.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.
This year, the anemic Bills defense has surrendered a massive 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.
Kenneth Gainwell has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 39.7% of snaps vs just 28.2% last year.
Kenneth Gainwell's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, totaling a mere 3.99 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 5.75 figure last year.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Buffalo's collection of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the league.