Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Kenneth Gainwell has compiled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (77.1%).
The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.