Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-132/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Kenneth Gainwell has accrued a colossal 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Kenneth Gainwell's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Kenneth Gainwell's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.5% to 50.1%.