Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Kenneth Gainwell has compiled a whopping 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Kenneth Gainwell's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Kenneth Gainwell has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 16.0 yards per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Kenneth Gainwell's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.5% to 49.5%.
Kenneth Gainwell's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging just 3.50 yards-per-target vs a 6.08 figure last season.