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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Kendrick Bourne comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

This year, the porous Jaguars pass defense has been torched for a massive 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

With respect to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.79 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Patriots as the 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.

While Kendrick Bourne has been responsible for 18.0% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of New England's passing offense in this game at 12.0%.

The New England O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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