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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are enormous underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Kendrick Bourne's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 66.8% to 72.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

Kendrick Bourne's 25.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 50.5.

The New England offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Kendrick Bourne's 2.4 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.6 figure.

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