Kendrick Bourne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
The projections expect Kendrick Bourne to earn 7.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Kendrick Bourne has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this season (21.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.8%).

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Kendrick Bourne's 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 74.8% rate.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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