Kendrick Bourne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
This week, Kendrick Bourne is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets.
Kendrick Bourne's 52.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 23.9.
Kendrick Bourne's receiving skills have been refined this year, compiling 4.7 adjusted catches compared to a measly 2.2 last year.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Kendrick Bourne's 64.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a a substantial reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 74.8% mark.