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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Kendrick Bourne has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense this season (18.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (9.8%).

Kendrick Bourne's receiving talent has been refined this season, accumulating 4.2 adjusted catches vs a mere 2.2 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 74.8% to 59.7%.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.2%) to wide receivers this year (60.2%).

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