Kendrick Bourne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+123/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kendrick Bourne to be much more involved in his offense's air attack this week (16.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.8% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.8%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (61.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.