Kendrick Bourne Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+136/-174).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.0%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Kendrick Bourne's 20.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 30.8.
Kendrick Bourne's pass-catching performance declined this year, totaling just 2.0 yards per game compared to 3.4 last year.
Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.2% to 76.4%.

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