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Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Kendrick Bourne's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 66.8% to 73.8%.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (156.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, yielding 8.62 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

Kendrick Bourne has been much less involved in his offense's passing attack this season (10.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.8%).

Kendrick Bourne has notched quite a few less air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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