Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kendrick Bourne has been responsible for a staggering 33.7% of his offense's air yards this year: 86th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.8% to 59.6%.
Kendrick Bourne's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 6.67 yards-per-target vs a 9.61 figure last season.
The Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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