Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kendrick Bourne

NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Kendrick Bourne's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this year, compiling 7.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 5.40 mark last year.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Kendrick Bourne's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.8% to 53.2%.
Kendrick Bourne's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a measly 5.65 yards-per-target compared to a 9.61 rate last season.
The New York Jets defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 112.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.

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