Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.0 plays per game.
Kendrick Bourne's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.0% to 62.0%.
Kendrick Bourne's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 7.75 yards-per-target compared to a 9.64 figure last year.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 7.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in football.