Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Kendrick Bourne

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Kendrick Bourne Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+382/-787).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +410 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +382.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.0%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Kendrick Bourne has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Kendrick Bourne's 20.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 30.8.
Kendrick Bourne's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.2% to 76.4%.