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Kendre Miller

Kendre Miller Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

Kendre Miller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-164/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -164.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a huge 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 69.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in football.

This week, Kendre Miller is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 4.5 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the least pass-oriented team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Saints.

The Saints O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Kendre Miller rates as one of the worst RB receiving threats this year, averaging a mere 0.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 12th percentile among running backs.

Kendre Miller's 39.2% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a substantial decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 90.9% mark.

This year, the strong Packers defense has yielded a meager 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.

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