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Keith Kirkwood

Keith Kirkwood Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Keith Kirkwood Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Keith Kirkwood's 16.2% Route Participation% this season marks a significant drop-off in his passing game utilization over last season's 51.4% figure.

Keith Kirkwood has totaled a paltry 11.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.

Keith Kirkwood grades out as one of the weakest pass-catching WRs this year, averaging just 4.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 4th percentile among wide receivers.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 2.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

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