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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-162/+123).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a giant 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

In this contest, Keenan Allen is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are projected by the projection model to run just 64.3 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.

The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Keenan Allen's 63.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 73.2.

Keenan Allen's 4.5 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a material drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season's 8.2 mark.

Keenan Allen's 56.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a material drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 73.1% rate.

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