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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.

The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.

The projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 123.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Keenan Allen's 24.6% Target% this year illustrates a noteable regression in his air attack usage over last year's 31.0% rate.

Keenan Allen's receiving performance has declined this year, totaling a mere 4.5 adjusted receptions vs 8.2 last year.

Keenan Allen's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.1% to 58.6%.

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