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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are heavy -9.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.3 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bears to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Keenan Allen's 25.0% Target Share this year reflects a noteable reduction in his passing attack usage over last year's 31.0% mark.

Keenan Allen's receiving skills have worsened this year, averaging a measly 4.4 adjusted catches compared to 8.2 last year.

Keenan Allen's 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a substantial decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.1% mark.

This year, the formidable Lions defense has given up a puny 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best rate in the league.

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