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Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.16 seconds per play.

The projections expect Keenan Allen to earn 7.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.

The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

This year, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has given up a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Keenan Allen has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this season (24.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (31.0%).

Keenan Allen's 3.5 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 8.2 rate.

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