Keenan Allen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
With an extraordinary 97.3% Route% (98th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen places among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 10.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Keenan Allen's 7.5 adjusted catches per game this season indicates an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last season's 6.5 mark.
Keenan Allen checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching an outstanding 74.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.