Keenan Allen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
With a remarkable 97.2% Route% (98th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen places among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Keenan Allen's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.4% to 72.8%.

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