Keenan Allen Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
This week, Keenan Allen is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.6 targets.
Keenan Allen's 31.5% Target Share this season represents a material improvement in his pass attack workload over last season's 26.4% mark.
Keenan Allen's 8.6 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a remarkable growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 6.5 figure.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.

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