Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
In this week's game, Keenan Allen is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.6 targets.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has conceded a meager 121.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.9%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (62.9%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Dallas's CB corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.