Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 11.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Keenan Allen has accrued far more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).
Keenan Allen's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 63.2.

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.

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