Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 88.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 94.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 88.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
This week, Keenan Allen is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among wide receivers with 11.6 targets.
Keenan Allen's 31.5% Target Share this season represents a material improvement in his pass attack workload over last season's 26.4% mark.
Keenan Allen has compiled significantly more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (89.0 per game).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

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