Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
With an extraordinary 94.8% Route Participation% (96th percentile) this year, Keenan Allen has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league.
In this week's contest, Keenan Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 12.0 targets.
After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has gotten better this season, currently averaging 101.0 per game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
The Packers defense has allowed the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 134.0) vs. WRs this year.
This year, the strong Packers pass defense has allowed the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a measly 3.3 YAC.

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