Keaontay Ingram Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Keaontay Ingram

NFL · Player Props

Keaontay Ingram

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Keaontay Ingram Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the 3rd-most run-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% run rate.
In this game, Keaontay Ingram is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 90th percentile among running backs with 15.8 carries.
The predictive model expects Keaontay Ingram to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack in this contest (58.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cardinals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune.
The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football last year at opening holes for rushers.
With a very bad total of 2.46 adjusted yards per carry (23rd percentile) this year, Keaontay Ingram stands among the weakest RBs in the league at the position.

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