Kareem Hunt Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Kareem Hunt

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Kareem Hunt Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -246 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -307.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Kareem Hunt has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (86th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kareem Hunt to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (30.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.5% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least touchdowns in football (0.40 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.