Kareem Hunt Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Kareem Hunt

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kareem Hunt Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+241/-385).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -308 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -385.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the most run-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have used motion in their offense on 46.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Kareem Hunt to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (31.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.9% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.